Polysilicon will be replaced with new material
Friday, September 3rd, 2010Polysilicon ferocious rally recently, before the domestic spot price has risen to 70 U.S. dollars / kg, the industry is expected to end or rose 100 U.S. dollars / kg. In this regard, it not help think of 2008, 500 U.S. dollars / kg of high price. High price will happen again? Impact on the industry, how, how the way of polysilicon?
Lower this year, greatly increased the demand for photovoltaic cells, is worth polysilicon call an important reason. In this regard, this site was informed that polysilicon rally round 50 dollars from the end of last year / kg bottoming out, but domestic production is still excess demand for short-term stimulus is not a continuation of polysilicon is expected to continue rising up to six months, or up to 30% will not be much impact on the industry. The long term, polysilicon thin film and other new materials or alternative path nikon EN-EL4 charger nikon EN-EL4a charger .
Or put a temporary rebound in long-term
Industry sources say that the domestic spot price of polysilicon has more than 70 U.S. dollars. Domestic polysilicon manufacturer, a large media executives confirmed that “as far as I know, no surprise rise above 70 dollars. In the end of this year, polysilicon spot prices rise above 100 U.S. dollars will not be much problem.” The executive said, ” downstream of this year (ie, crystalline silicon PV cells and battery components business) greatly increased demand, the original view that the European market as Germany and Spain reducing subsidies occur demand declined significantly in the case, it now appears we were overreacting. in fact Europe market demand is still growing, but growth rate down. ”
Director of Energy Technology Co., Ltd. Guangzhou Yasuharu He Ping accepted an interview with the South have said the current round of rising polysilicon prices are actually relatively rebound before the battered, but is not expected to go up a long, sustained rally up to six months, or up to 20% to 30%.
He Ping analysis, in May 2008, polysilicon spot price shot up to 500 U.S. dollars per kg, but then dropped, the end of 2009, polysilicon spot price fell to around 50 dollars. Recent polysilicon up to 70 U.S. dollars / kg, from the bottom up, but once again rise to the possibility of a few hundred dollars a kilogram of almost zero. Domestic production of polysilicon large listed companies such as Suntech, performance is not good, industry competition is still fierce.
“Short-term rise, long-term are not optimistic.” Xiamen University, China Energy Economic Research Center director Lin Boqiang told reporters Southern, the current round of inflation is restorative, mainly stimulated by the short-term factors, one European government will abolish subsidies for solar industry, related companies rush to buy time for the subsidy is abolished, leading to rising demand; Second, China’s second batch of 280 MW PV power station tender, have stimulated demand. But in the long term, the current production capacity of polysilicon in China remains a serious surplus, which is why the state will limit the production of polysilicon. Even so, no new projects are put into the original project is excess capacity, “so-called capacity planning to say, is wrong.”
Polysilicon or phased out
Crystalline silicon cells and the downstream crystalline silicon battery components manufacturers, the crystalline silicon raw material price increases, its performance and gross margin will be adversely affected. Zhejiang Chint Solar Energy Technology Co., Ltd. Strategic Marketing Manager Hu Wan-book an interview that the company is bearing the upstream silicon raw material price increases cost pressures. If the polysilicon continued to rise, then the first half of next year, the industry may go into difficulties, but this time not very long NB-2L NB-2LH .
However, an interview about the situation, most of polysilicon is expected to continue to rally round the end, will not last until next year. Xiamen University, China Energy Economic Research Center director Lin Boqiang that even the year after next year, polysilicon will not rise, the state will continue to limit the capacity of the industry.
Moreover, new technologies, new materials is likely to replace silicon. Director of Energy Technology Co., Ltd. Guangzhou Yasuharu He Ping told reporters Southern, polysilicon is still high pollution and high energy consumption products, conversion rate, and consumption of resources is bound to be phased out. Now there’s silicon-based films, many with high conversion rate will be the future. Xiamen University, China Energy Economic Research Center director Lin Boqiang also said the new energy sector development of new technologies very quickly, once the new technological breakthrough, polycrystalline silicon will not be mainstream.
Actually, some companies have begun restructuring the industry, not to its polysilicon production or as raw materials. Involved in solar energy, the new Austrian Southern Group spokesman told reporters that the company will use solar power silicon thin film components, instead of polysilicon.
Controversy or lack of excess production capacity of polysilicon?
Polysilicon price gains this round, the industry, there are two voices, one that the domestic capacity planning, price will rise; The other is that excess capacity, gains not sustainable. Whether the excess production capacity of polysilicon, the key is to judge, but arguments have not yet taken.
September 2009, the central authorities issued a notice, finds that polysilicon production capacity surplus. Xiamen University, China Energy Centre for Economic Research and the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology Commission Director Lin Boqiang Ni Weidou have accepted an interview with the South believed that the industry overcapacity, low-level redundant construction to excess most of the companies relied on all eating of government subsidies, the actual efficiency is poor NB-4L NB-5L .
However, domestic high-quality polysilicon still rely heavily on import. The industry believes that “excess capacity on the” take the letter are planning capacity, and far from actual output. The construction of the project with the polysilicon production technology cycle longer relevant, on the other hand, due process and technical reasons, planning capacity may not be able to form the actual output.
NDRC Energy Research Institute, Li Junfeng, deputy director of media interviews that the Government of the polysilicon industry overcapacity determine the actual control of the new energy industry is the low level duplicated construction emerged, on the high level of productivity is still supportive. The domestic production of polysilicon, the biggest problem is the key technology and equipment is still not fully grasp.